More on China, U.S. Retail Numbers - StockResearchPortal.com

January 15, 2009

Good Morning:

More on China, U.S. Retail Numbers

The Importance of China's Growth Rate to World Economics

An article this morning reports the World Economic Forum ('WEF') has said a sharp slowdown in China is one of the biggest threats to future world economic prosperity as it could:

·    lead to serious unemployment and social unrest in China;

·    badly hit China's trading partners; and,

·    badly hit global commodity and capital markets.

Interestingly, the WEF is reported as saying that even a slowing from the 'galloping' 10% annual growth averaged over the past few decades to below 6% would be enough to trigger damaging repercussions, and that China could be the source of a second economic threat - an asset price bubble - related in part to rocketing property prices in Beijing and Shanghai, as evidence of possible trouble ahead.

I am not surprised that reduced Chinese economic growth rates are seen as a threat to what I see as fragile world economic interdependence.  I am surprised that the WEF has said that a reduced growth rate to below 6% would be as important to that fragility as it appears it does.  My concern is that if the WEF is right, there isn't as much margin for error in China's growth rate relative to the well-being of the world's developed economies as I would have thought.  This is something I will be carefully considering when reflecting on my own equity investment activities going forward.

U.S. Retail Sales

Reports yesterday said that U.S. retail sales fell 0.3 percent from November to December, with a particularly large decline in sales of consumer electronics. Excluding autos, gas and restaurants, sales dipped 0.5 percent - although sales 'at established stores' were up 2.8% from December, 2008.  A Washington Post article says "December is a critical month for the retail industry, the culmination of the Christmas shopping season and traditionally the biggest sales month of the year. The drop in spending underscores just how fragile consumers remain, particularly as unemployment stays in the double digits".  I think this has to be right, and suggest that in the coming months readers carefully watch both U.S. Consumer Confidence indicators and U.S. Retail sales for strength and weakness indicators in the context of their investment decisions.

Sample Results from Yesterday's 'Today's Press Releases Price/Volume Changes' Data Tables - see Today's Tables, updated in 20 minute delayed time, on StockResearchPortal.com's Home Page

The following table summarizes the price changes and volumes for 4 companies in StockResearchPortal's Company Universe as they appeared yesterday in 'Today's Press Releases Price/Volume Changes' Data Tables.  These 'dynamic' tables can be accessed during each Trading Day by clicking on the top 'blue' button found in the center of our website's Home Page.

Our 'Press Releases Price/Volume Changes' tables each trading day add Press Releases in real time, and show continuously updated share prices and volumes for the companies that issue them.  Subscribers can sort the results in ascending or descending order.  Gains of more than 25% are highlighted in 'gold', gains of 10% - 25% are highlighted in 'blue', and losses of greater than 10% are highlighted in 'red'.  This data component, only recently introduced to our website, is proving to be of great interest to Subscribers.

As always, I welcome your comments and suggestions at info@stockresearchportal.com.

Best Regards,



Ian R. Campbell
President
StockResearchPortal.com