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January 28, 2010
Good Morning:
State of the Union
As I listened last evening to President Obama's 'State of the Union' proposals,
most notably I heard him center on job creation, a freeze in U.S. federal discretionary
spending beginning in 2011, and an initiative to increase U.S. exports - all while
urging Congress to complete its work on climate change legislation, financial reform
and health-care legislation. My summary isn't very different than that found
in this Washington Post article.
In general terms, from my perspective he is focusing on the right issues - the importance
of turning the U.S. job situation around, positively impacting the continuously
escalating U.S. net trade deficit, and getting the U.S. Federal Deficit under at
least some degree of control. While the other issues he addressed are not
unimportant, to attempt to address all things at the same time without prioritizing
them has to be folly - and I can't see how that can work if that is President Obama's
intent.
President Obama must, by definition, be a cheerleader for the U.S. and must enthusiastically
ever advance the idea that the U.S. is the world's greatest nation - and most importantly
that its people have the will, the resilience, and the financial 'where with all'
to be able to get the U.S. back 'on the rails' economically speaking. My problem
is that I simply can't see what jobs are going to replace the lost U.S. manufacturing
jobs - even in an environment of increased U.S. economic protectionism. I
also can't see how the U.S. (or any other nation) can survive as a 'nation of service
providers'. To cite Thomas Friedman in his book 'The World Is Flat', an nation's
economy based on its residents selling 'hamburgers to each other' won't work.
If I am right in these things, I think the Obama Administration (or any other U.S.
Administration) is unlikely to be able ever to introduce (and importantly, fund)
policies that will return the U.S. to anything like the economic vibrancy - or perhaps
better said, the generally perceived economic vibrancy - it enjoyed to the end of
2007.
I recommend you read an article titled 'Where Will US Job Growth Come From?' which
summarizes U.S. jobs by industry from 1970 - 2008, and summarizes a forecast of
U.S. job sources in 2016 - click here.
Notes to Readers
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