China's FX Reserves, Uranium

China's FX Reserves, Uranium

China's FX Reserves

A chart today titled 'Who Owns US Treasury Debt?' says total U.S. Treasury Debt at March, 2010 stood at U.S.$12.8 trillion, and of that amount China holds about U.S.$800 billion (U.S.$900 billion by other, I think likely more accurate, estimates - for example see 'China Backs Obama as Treasury Holdings Rise to $900 Billion').  If U.S.$900 billion is an accurate amount, there is a large gap between China's U.S. Treasury Debt holdings and the widely quoted figure of U.S.$2.4 trillion FX broadly said to be held by China.  Some of that U.S.$1.5 trillion difference is said to be comprised of U.S. Agency Bonds (bonds sponsored by, but not guaranteed by, the U.S. Government) - reported at about $600 billion at the end of 2008, U.S. Corporate Bonds - reported at U.S.$150 billion at the end of 2008, and smaller amounts of 'U.S. Equities' - reported at U.S.$40 billion at the end of 2008, and U.S. Short-term Deposits - reported at U.S.$40 billion at the end of 2008.  Even if 18 months after 2008 China's holdings in non-Treasury U.S. Debt and Equities has grown, I think it unlikely it will have grown by the difference (about U.S.$675 billion) between the aforementioned U.S.$2.4 trillion and the aggregate of China's current reported U.S. Treasury Debt holdings and the end-2008 numbers set out in this accounting.

Based on about one hour's research this morning, I have concluded that whatever the difference is today (perhaps something less than U.S.$675 billion) my take is that the difference is accounted for by China's FX holdings in the debt and equities of developed countries other than the U.S.

I have taken the time to spell this out because I frequently reference China's U.S.$ holdings in my e-mails.  Everything I read suggests that China is both circumspect and perhaps 'more than a little' secretive in what it discloses about its Foreign Exchange Reserves. 

Uranium

An article today titled 'Uranium:  How to Play It and Why' strikes me as a good and reasonably objective summary of how 'nuclear works', the author's perception of 'its future' and 'how to play it', and what I think is an interesting observation of 'alternate energy' investment prospects (the author groups 'nuclear' as 'alternate energy') in the context of conventional energy investment prospects.  I suggest you consider reading this article - reading time 5 minutes.  I commented on the article as follows:

Well written and useful article as I see it. The thought expressed in the article that I find most interesting is that alternate energy companies (wind, solar, nuclear, etc.) don't exist in a vacuum, and broadly are unlikely to do well from an investment point of view unless traditional energy companies first do well - that timing being as a generality when the latter enjoy the benefits of revenues based on high prices for their respective commodities. I think this has to be correct, had not focused on it in the way 'Jeffrey Dow Jones' has, and thank him for the thought.

While I don't (perhaps contrary to the norm) think of nuclear energy as 'alternate energy', certainly the uranium price was much higher when oil prices were much higher. I have always believed those higher uranium prices included a substantive 'speculative value' based on an expectation that high oil prices over time would force substantive 'nuclear power' development. Personally I believe that nuclear power plants - a proven technology - will proliferate world-wide in time, but I think the time-frame for that is many years hence.

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